The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity over the business cycle - evidence from a threshold VAR analysis

Does the state of the business cycle matter for the effects of fiscal policy shocks on GDP? This study analyses quarterly German data from 1976 to 2009 in a threshold SVAR, expanding the SVAR approach by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). In a linear benchmark SVAR, the analysis finds that hiking spending yields a short-term fiscal multiplier of around 0.70, while the fiscal multiplier resulting from an increase in taxes and social security contributions is -0.66. In addition, the threshold model derives fundamentally new insights on the effects of shocks, depending on when in the business cycle they occur, their size and their direction. Most importantly, fiscal spending multipliers are much larger in times of a negative output gap but have only a very limited effect in times of a positive output gap. Discretionary revenue policies, on the other hand, have a generally more limited impact. Our findings have important implications for the optimal fiscal policy mix over different stages of the business cycle. Various robustness checks, including a different threshold specification, do not influence these implications substantially. --fiscal policy,business cycle,nonlinear analysis,fiscal multipliers

Evidence of Rocky Planetesimals Orbiting Two Hyades Stars

The Hyades is the nearest open cluster, relatively young and containing numerous A-type stars; its known age, distance, and metallicity make it an ideal site to study planetary systems around 2-3 Msun stars at an epoch similar to the late heavy bombardment. Hubble Space Telescope far-ultraviolet spectroscopy strongly suggests ongoing, external metal pollution in two remnant Hyads. For ongoing accretion in both stars, the polluting material has log[n(Si)/n(C)] > 0.2, is more carbon deficient than chondritic meteorites, and is thus rocky. These data are consistent with a picture where rocky planetesimals and small planets have formed in the Hyades around two main-sequence A-type stars, whose white dwarf descendants bear the scars. These detections via metal pollution are shown to be equivalent to infrared excesses of Lir/L* ~ 1e-6 in the terrestrial zone of the stars.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables, accepted to MNRA

Determination of S17(0) from published data

The experimental landscape for the 7Be+p radiative capture reaction is rapidly changing as new high precision data become available. We present an evaluation of existing data, detailing the treatment of systematic errors and discrepancies, and show how they constrain the astrophysical S factor (S17), independent of any nuclear structure model. With theoretical models robustly determining the behavior of the sub-threshold pole, the extrapolation error can be reduced and a constraint placed on the slope of S17. Using only radiative capture data, we find S17(0) = 20.7 +/- 0.6 (stat) +/- 1.0 (syst) eV b if data sets are completely independent, while if data sets are completely correlated we find S17(0) = 21.4 +/- 0.5 (stat) +/- 1.4 (syst) eV b. The truth likely lies somewhere in between these two limits. Although we employ a formalism capable of treating discrepant data, we note that the central value of the S factor is dominated by the recent high precision data of Junghans et al., which imply a substantially higher value than other radiative capture and indirect measurements. Therefore we conclude that further progress will require new high precision data with a detailed error budget.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure published versio

Gemini spectra of 12000K white dwarf stars

We report signal-to-noise ratio SNR ~ 100 optical spectra for four DA white dwarf stars acquired with the GMOS spectrograph of the 8m Gemini north telescope. These stars have 18<g<19 and are around Teff ~ 12000 K, were the hydrogen lines are close to maximum. Our purpose is to test if the effective temperatures and surface gravities derived from the relatively low signal-to-noise ratio ( ~ 21) optical spectra acquired by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey through model atmosphere fitting are trustworthy. Our spectra range from 3800A to 6000A, therefore including H beta to H9. The H8 line was only marginally present in the SDSS spectra, but is crucial to determine the gravity. When we compare the values published by Kleinman et al. (2004) and Eisenstein et al. (2006) with our line-profile (LPT) fits, the average differences are: Delta Teff ~ 320 K, systematically lower in SDSS, and Delta log g ~ 0.24 dex, systematically larger in SDSS. The correlation between gravity and effective temperature can only be broken at wavelengths bluer than 3800 A. The uncertainties in Teff are 60% larger, and in log g larger by a factor of 4, than the Kleinman et al. (2004) and Eisenstein et al. (2006) internal uncertainties.Comment: 11 pages and 8 figure

The astrophysical reaction 8Li(n,gamma)9Li from measurements by reverse kinematics

We study the breakup of 9Li projectiles in high energy (28.5 MeV/u) collisions with heavy nuclear targets (208Pb). The wave functions are calculated using a single-particle model for 9Li, and a simple optical potential model for the scattering part. A good agreement with measured data is obtained with insignificant E2 contribution.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure